Thursday, October 21, 2004

So Bush is in the Lead?

Sorry to just pile on to what others have said but this is worth pointing out. Despite many (most) of the polls out there show kerry or bush in the lead but not beyond the margin of error. this margin shows that the actual number can actually be higher or lower than what's shown by the amount listed in the margin of error. technically if you are within the MoE you can't trully know who is ahead.

That being said--why is it when ikerry is in the 'lead' the race is called a toss-up and when bush has the 'lead' they claim he's leading the race? evidence below:

AP Poll: Bush, Kerry in Dead Heat [...] In the AP-Ipsos Public Affairs poll, the Democratic ticket of Kerry and Sen. John Edwards got support from 49 percent of those who said they were likely to vote, and the Republican team of Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney got 46 percent, within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Reuters Poll: Bush Grabs One-Point Lead on Kerry [...] President Bush opened a slight one-point lead on Democratic rival John Kerry in a tight race for the White House, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Thursday.

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