Monday, January 19, 2004

MSNBC - Iowa Democrats prefer Kerry, Edwards

Here's your take from Polly and the Mooch:

OK, i'm writing this clean before the total results are in or before some talking head clouds my mind. A few days ago someone asked me where it would end up and i said top 3 would be Dean, Edwards, and Kerry. someone asked 'what about Gephardt?' to which i said '4th place'. i was half right. I told them that it really would come down to who had the most support on the second ticket, meaning who would they go with if their number ONE guy wasn't going to get it?

Gephardt was struggling and he just doesn't have it. sorry. i like him, but he's not gonna be the prez or the nominee.

Lieberman? he didn't beat Kucinich. CLARK beat him and he's not in the Iowa race! i've never liked him and he'll be gone by New Hampshire

Kerry? Its about organization there. this is a caucus, not a PRIMARY where people go vote for a guy they like. this is also why i don't like Iowa. it always seems unreal to me...sorta bought and paid for, as we say. either way, he pulls ahead, but i don't think it will last. it WILL be a boost, but i DO think he will run out of gas. I still see him as an Al Gore w/ a better service record. why? he's afraid to press on his strengths, and if you can't seem commanding on your strengths, how do you inspire? you don't.

Dean? Stumble. the press is DYING to pronounce him DOA, despite building the hype on him. the press giveth, the press taketh away. Dean's fate will be decided POST N.H. i still have faith in him over Kerry in the Primaries AND in the general election, but it will be tougher. he's not the titanic, but he's not invincible either.

Edwards? I started to believe in his organization after the Des Moines paper endorsed him--a suprise to many. I've ALWAYS liked Edwards, and i supported him after i met him...however, that was before General Clark got into the race. Edwards was the guy, the GOP feared most, to my mind, back in Fall 2002. a lot has changed. i think the guy can do it if he gets his message going and learns to fire up the troops. i've not seen him do that yet, but i believe he can. this keeps him in through the early post N.H. primaries...particularly South Carolina.

So where does this leave Gen. Clark? where everyone guessed. wondering if missing Iowa cost him anything. i tend to say no, but to be honest with myself, that is part of my distaste of Iowa talking. he's had some time to make some inroads with the VOTERS of N.H. in the time he's missing the Iowa press coverage. they vote, reporters do not. Also, he's been able to this free and clear while everyone else is away out of state. I still think he's the only guy that can inspire the voters AND cross the divide between republicans and democrats. the only ones that really bash him wouldn't EVER vote for a democrat anyway, and you cannot say that about any other candidate.

As for dean inspiring all these new voters...well, it makes me want to ask "How's that going for you there, Dean?" someone, somewhere made this point: we don't need the Blue states to get any more blue, meaning it doesn't matter one whit if you can charge up the voters in states we'll win anyway. that is part of his problem. this is not a national election. presidential races are state elections that are tallied up at the end of the day. ask Al Gore about what the popular vote will get you.

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