Monday, January 19, 2004

Democrats Wrestle With 'Electability' (

From the article:

Dean is vowing that he would defeat Bush by energizing his party and drawing new voters with a bolder, brasher and less defensive alternative than Democrats have offered in recent years, including when Bill Clinton was president. Speaking here the other day, Dean expressly rejected the constant focus on moderate swing voters that was Clinton's hallmark.

"Our strategy is not to go to swing voters first and hope everybody else will come along," Dean explained to his audience. Of young people and other nonvoters, he said, "The reason they don't vote is because they can't tell the difference between Democrats and Republicans, and we're going to show them that there really is a difference."

Here it is. THIS is why i don't like dean (who, actually, i like). Dean wants to get the "new voters" motivated. get them out and they'll vote for him. the problem is this: they don't like him that much. In surveys i've seen (as quoted by Deans campaign mgr.) those that are not registered to vote prefer dean...but only by a small margin. so let me get this straight, Dean plans to win the race by ignoring the undecided middle and somehow be the ONE GUY to turn around FOUR DECADES of declining voter turnout, so that he can pull off a win. Somehow he's going to get these people that have marginal support for him AND have not even bothered to get registered to vote--these are the people he's going to pull together for victory.

All his eggs in THAT basket? GOD. the more i hear about this (and they talk about it constantly), the less i like it.

John Harwood writes about this in The Wall Street Journal (Jan. 16th--and i'm no fan of the wsj BUT it hits on the head...)

There's no doubt that rousing new enthusiasm in the country as a whole will prove more difficult for Mr. Dean than it has been in the nomination contest. A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows greater Democratic sympathies for Mr. Dean among those who aren't registered to vote than among those who are. But among all unregistered voters, there isn't a greater propensity to vote for Mr. Dean -- either in the Democratic race or in the general election.
In fact, those not registered are slightly more supportive of the Iraq war than Americans as a whole. So are younger voters, whom Mr. Dean has been counting on but who have rarely turned out in large numbers. An exception was Mr. Ventura's third-party win. So far, "Dean is no Jesse Ventura" when it comes to drawing young voters, observes Robert Teeter, who conducts the Journal/NBC poll with his Democratic counterpart Peter Hart.strong>

ok, so even those that aren't registered to vote are more likely to be IN FAVOR of the war? and dean is gonna pull THESE folks together to change the course of history?

I'd like to see it happen. that campaign can win but it needs a dose of reality. this isn't 5 monthis ago when being in the lead was all fantasy. until then...i say VOTE CLARK!

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