Friday, January 23, 2004

Howard Deans Iowa Problems

This article makes a number of great points as to why Dean did poorly in Iowa. Dean has been campaigning on the idea that this NEW style of campaign (that pushes new voters and unlikely voters) could catapult him into the nomination. The money he raised through the net has gotten him a great deal of media coverage. The hype has been self-inflicted by the media and I believe the Deanies have begun to believe their own press. As this article points out, there WERE many new Dems involved in Iowa, the problem with the dean equation was that virtually none were new young voters he expected to create his surge.

Some of the people quoted said they were put off by Deans adds. They claimed they were more about getting the people out to vote for him as opposed to actually selling himself as the one that should get their vote. This sort of hubris is what he’s having to eat for lunch because it made him look like he was campaigning wildly for people that aren’t really there. This gets rock bottom to the problem with measuring a ‘surge’ before the first vote is cast. The press is just as guilty as dean is, but the difference is the press isn’t trying to run for president. This is also the reason why I’m very dismissive of the Kerry “lead” at this point–that and the fact that I find him slightly more energizing than Lieberman...who I find slightly more energizing than a coma.

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