Wednesday, May 07, 2008

The Morning After

UPDATE: Clinton just lent her campaign $6.4 Million, leading me to believe it may not be over yet. Sadly, this is good for no one, including her.

To follow up from last night, I think Obama is gonna get the nomination this week, if not today. As of this morning, I’m still sticking to the fact that she's canceled all coming news appearances, including the morning shows. No one in a close race that plans to make a go of it cancels on free media. you don't do that unless you quit.

Which is good. she HAS to quit, or tear the party apart. Because she cannot win
Mathematically. without political insiders trumping the popular vote, it is impossible for her to win by people counted in the popular vote. She would have to override the will of the people with the consent of a minority of supporters (no matter how big a minority) which will send the party into chaos.

Which brings me to something else. I keep hearing that Hillary, whom i like, and her supporters keep saying "who tells someone that's 2% behind 'you should quit'". The problem is that sometimes you just lose by 8 votes (like in Guam this week). Additionally, Chaos is a proper word here. Have you heard of “Operation Chaos”? Rush Limbaugh and others have been advocating daily for ALL GOP'ers to vote for Hillary in the Democratic primary for weeks now. The theory was that Hillary is the weaker candidate to run against, so the GOP should help HER be the nominee. This means some of the support that pushed her was fueled by GOP people crossing over to vote for her because she's a better opponent for them than Obama. In some of the exit polling I saw showed a substantial percentage of Hillary supporters 10-18% were saying they don't feel she matches their views, etc. the only way that makes sense is crossover vote and when you win by a few points, that's a few Rush Limbaugh points!

I liked her until the end, when it came down to the teardown politics. This is not because I'm naive about how that works, but she had the slimmest of chances to actually win. She was edging into Mike Huckabee land. She was trying to lay waste to her opponent, leaving him too bloody to go on. This was done so the super delegates could feel comfortable tossing out the popular vote. They could feel he was too battered to go on in the general election. Even THAT would be ok if she had any chance to pull off a real win without a real party breakdown. I didn't like it because to win that sort of nomination, outside of trumping the popular vote and sending Dems into orbit, is impossible. In my mind, she’d have inevitably lost, ripped the party and left Obama with a knife in his back.

No thanks.

No comments: