UPDATE

Below i mentioned the Bush spin on the 'bounce' once gets out of picking a running mate and getting a convention. because they dominate the news cycles with largely positive press, i can see that. however, is 15 POINTS that normal? maybe it's been too long and i just don't remember.

WASHINGTON — Challenger John Kerry, who according to campaign sources is expected to announce his running mate this morning, will lead President Bush by 15 points when the Democratic convention wraps up at the end of July, according to a top Bush campaign adviser.

In a memo to campaign leadership Monday, Matthew Dowd, Bush's chief strategist, said Kerry is about to benefit from "the average challenger's bounce." ... "We should expect the race to swing wildly to his favor by early August," Dowd, who remains confident Bush will win, said in the memo.

Dowd also noted that Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe predicted Sunday that Kerry would be up by 8 to 10 points following the convention.