Time to update.
before Iowa the press was losing their minds over the Obama/Hillary Race. the thing was, it WASN'T an Obama/Hillary race, but they don't care. Edwards? who's he? they like the idea of the first legit female candidate and first legit black candidate (legit=has a chance. no offense, those who came before). They weren't interested in anything else and this emphasis made Iowa out to be THE (first and) FINAL word on the election. well, you can't get everything you want. the breakdown wasn't too far off as predicted. Now it IS a big deal that Hillary got 3rd after being up for so long, but those old high poll numbers were bogus. just like any other numbers that come out WAY ahead of time--they're based on name ID and are relatively meaningless. Obama had momentum and a machine working for him. Edwards had a good machine too. Hillary had a smaller machine made of the leftover parts and BARELY got third.
Now that breakdown was roughly 1/3 of the vote to each candidate, but you would have thought Obama got 75%! we roll into NH and the press is losing it. Hillary was blown out...but she wasn't the split was 1/3 each, but to hear the headlines, you would have thought she had been shot dead on election night. NH comes. a place where Edwards has minimal presence. a place where Hillary has a geographic advantage over Obama, and WHAT!?!?!?!...Obama gets 2nd place!?! this time the vote percentage breaks in the 30s for Hillary AND Obama, but Hillary loses.
the press flips out.
They had polls that showed Obama ahead. what goes on here!?!?! never mind that most barely squeaked by the margin of error. didn't you hear that Hillary was found dead in Iowa!?! it was a comeback only in the eyes of the press who created the imaginary gulf between her and Obama in the first place. sadly for Edwards, it IS a 2 person race now, as he doesn't have the money to keep going in a fashion that will survive South Carolina and Nevada and the press aren't doing any favors. Policy-wise, he's the one real 'change' candidate, if anything, because he's not an elected official now and doesn't have to worry about pissing off anyone. he can lay it all out as he likes.
RIP John Edwards.
So now hillary has the momentum again! she's surging! her numbers are growing (wow, outside of the margin of error even in some places!)...she's AHEAD! not so fast. even though Obama got 2nd place, as i counted it, he actually left with the SAME NUMBER OF DELEGATES as Hillary coming out of NH! did you know that? either way, both candidates have the money to survive the next 2 states: Nevada and South Carolina.
Another caucus state. I give this to Obama. This state isn't used to Caucusing for presidents. usually the thing is decided by the time they get to Nevada. Obama gets some organization muscle from the Culinary Workers Union (read massive casino worker/white/latino influence) which, not only is huge, but they are allowing caucusing to occur at some of the resort job sites. add that onto the organization he already has and he's formidable. How formidable? more muscle than the NEA (teachers) Union seem to be offering hillary. also enough to make some people SUE to stop the caucusing at resort locations...a few of these plaintiffs actually being from the board that approved the caucus location rules (voting 'yay')! now why that sort of hardball action? because it is that close (nationally) and they can't spare a single vote. they are playing the margins because they don't have a knockout here for Hillary. I say Obama wins it. anyone giving you a spread here is guessing....and i'm not even going to hazard a guess.
As you may have heard, 1/2 of the voters in the SC Democratic primary are black. perhaps more than half that number are women, SOOO....the question is, how will the black women break? I'm interested in their opposite number too. how do white democratic men break? in the beginning, Hillary had a great deal of support from establishment, black community leaders. these sorts of folks have been uneven against Obama in the past and they SURE seem awfully quiet about their support now compared to 4-5 months ago. maybe i should elaborate more, but i just don't see it for Hillary here either. Obama in SC.
if this happens, expect the press to have a meltdown. i may need to amend all this if trends change, but as of now, this is how i see it. More on the 'tears' episode for Hillary, which i find VERY interesting, in just a little bit. oh, i should add this. I've personally shifted my support to Obama. Now i don't plan to attack either one, but i will give you my take on the race as it goes by. i just figured i would fess up to how i felt.
Now, you wanna know why? with Obama, you get bigger/better coattails for other down ticket races that are out there. if it was the other way around (feel free to convince me), i'd support Hillary. it comes down to not much more than that...well, a little more, but i'll share that later.
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Time to update.