Tuesday, January 15, 2008

OK, Let's Run Through This

Time to update.

before Iowa the press was losing their minds over the Obama/Hillary Race. the thing was, it WASN'T an Obama/Hillary race, but they don't care. Edwards? who's he? they like the idea of the first legit female candidate and first legit black candidate (legit=has a chance. no offense, those who came before). They weren't interested in anything else and this emphasis made Iowa out to be THE (first and) FINAL word on the election. well, you can't get everything you want. the breakdown wasn't too far off as predicted. Now it IS a big deal that Hillary got 3rd after being up for so long, but those old high poll numbers were bogus. just like any other numbers that come out WAY ahead of time--they're based on name ID and are relatively meaningless. Obama had momentum and a machine working for him. Edwards had a good machine too. Hillary had a smaller machine made of the leftover parts and BARELY got third.

Now that breakdown was roughly 1/3 of the vote to each candidate, but you would have thought Obama got 75%! we roll into NH and the press is losing it. Hillary was blown out...but she wasn't the split was 1/3 each, but to hear the headlines, you would have thought she had been shot dead on election night. NH comes. a place where Edwards has minimal presence. a place where Hillary has a geographic advantage over Obama, and WHAT!?!?!?!...Obama gets 2nd place!?! this time the vote percentage breaks in the 30s for Hillary AND Obama, but Hillary loses.

the press flips out.

They had polls that showed Obama ahead. what goes on here!?!?! never mind that most barely squeaked by the margin of error. didn't you hear that Hillary was found dead in Iowa!?! it was a comeback only in the eyes of the press who created the imaginary gulf between her and Obama in the first place. sadly for Edwards, it IS a 2 person race now, as he doesn't have the money to keep going in a fashion that will survive South Carolina and Nevada and the press aren't doing any favors. Policy-wise, he's the one real 'change' candidate, if anything, because he's not an elected official now and doesn't have to worry about pissing off anyone. he can lay it all out as he likes.

RIP John Edwards.

So now hillary has the momentum again! she's surging! her numbers are growing (wow, outside of the margin of error even in some places!)...she's AHEAD! not so fast. even though Obama got 2nd place, as i counted it, he actually left with the SAME NUMBER OF DELEGATES as Hillary coming out of NH! did you know that? either way, both candidates have the money to survive the next 2 states: Nevada and South Carolina.

Nevada.
Another caucus state. I give this to Obama. This state isn't used to Caucusing for presidents. usually the thing is decided by the time they get to Nevada. Obama gets some organization muscle from the Culinary Workers Union (read massive casino worker/white/latino influence) which, not only is huge, but they are allowing caucusing to occur at some of the resort job sites. add that onto the organization he already has and he's formidable. How formidable? more muscle than the NEA (teachers) Union seem to be offering hillary. also enough to make some people SUE to stop the caucusing at resort locations...a few of these plaintiffs actually being from the board that approved the caucus location rules (voting 'yay')! now why that sort of hardball action? because it is that close (nationally) and they can't spare a single vote. they are playing the margins because they don't have a knockout here for Hillary. I say Obama wins it. anyone giving you a spread here is guessing....and i'm not even going to hazard a guess.

South Carolina.
As you may have heard, 1/2 of the voters in the SC Democratic primary are black. perhaps more than half that number are women, SOOO....the question is, how will the black women break? I'm interested in their opposite number too. how do white democratic men break? in the beginning, Hillary had a great deal of support from establishment, black community leaders. these sorts of folks have been uneven against Obama in the past and they SURE seem awfully quiet about their support now compared to 4-5 months ago. maybe i should elaborate more, but i just don't see it for Hillary here either. Obama in SC.

if this happens, expect the press to have a meltdown. i may need to amend all this if trends change, but as of now, this is how i see it. More on the 'tears' episode for Hillary, which i find VERY interesting, in just a little bit. oh, i should add this. I've personally shifted my support to Obama. Now i don't plan to attack either one, but i will give you my take on the race as it goes by. i just figured i would fess up to how i felt.

Now, you wanna know why? with Obama, you get bigger/better coattails for other down ticket races that are out there. if it was the other way around (feel free to convince me), i'd support Hillary. it comes down to not much more than that...well, a little more, but i'll share that later.

7 comments:

brd said...

Thanks for the analysis.

Polly said...

AWW Brd! you have to comment more than that!

hud said...

explain the coattails bit.

brd said...

Okay. Longer comment. I can't believe you, you, the one who got me to take Edwards seriously in the first place are juxtaposing RIP and his name before the SC primaries have even taken place. Well, I'm still planning to vote for Hillary in my primary (TN), but I like watching the threesaw (a seesaw for three) and haven't counted Edwards out yet.

The Republican thing should be interesting in SC. How about some analysis on that!

Polly said...

I wish you were right. His strategy was to springboard out of Iowa and get in the middle of this fight. it didn't happen. here are a few reasons:

1. Media loves Obama/Hillary and can't get off of it.
2. Obama is having more success pitching himself as the change candidate.
3. Edwards has tried to make this a 2 person race, putting it as Hillary is out (see the post-Iowa press). His problem here is that he beat up on her (deservedly so) in the debates and appeared to be siding with Obama. that makes him look like Obama part 2 in the press narative. he was AGREEING (using that word--AGREE!) with Obama too much in contrasting points with Hillary and thus the contrast he wanted...him vs. obama fell by the side.

hey, i don't like it at all. i think he's the best of the 3 by far, for several varried reasons, but i have to be honest here.

Polly said...

Coattails:

One of the early charges against Hillary (among dems that didn't support her, especially, and also among republican pols) was this:

What red states can she convert that Kerry didn't carry in 2004?

The notion is this. if we keep all we got in 2004, that isn't enough. now lets add a state or 2. hell, some of the blue ones were just BARELY (Washington, i'm looking at you). nevermind that. which are the convertible red states? most of the ones her husband could put into play seem utterly impossible for her. Louisiana? Georgia? Arkansas? Virginia?

Most people say you cannot win in this age without 2 of the 3: Ohio, Penn., and Florida. Those are not easy wins for her. Now, i believe she can do it, but whatever red states she converts, she won't do by big heaping margins, if i had to guess.

So she wins. well, a person that can only pull out a squeaker in places will have MUCH smaller coattails than someone that brings out the electorate.

Here is a prime example. Haley Barbour is trying to put off the special election to replace Trent Lott. He wants it in november so that his GOP guy can tie our candidate to Hillary, who has astronomical negatives here ...remember? she had a 19% favorable rating among DEMOCRATIC men in Iowa! this will be used to energize the vote down ticket so to pull out some hostile votes against the dem, even if the voter thinks hillary will win, they don't have to give her another democratic senator.

Now, let's flip that. what do you think voter turnout will be in MS--a state that is 38-40% black--if obama runs? we would see black turnout on a scale never seen before. in Mississippi, winning democrats in statewide elections work with appeal to whites and heavy black turnout. that's it.

I'm not saying our dem will win, but it will be a race that is in play and a place they have to spend money. Hillary doesn't bring that. Obama does. anyone that can give the threat of the first Democratic Senator since Stennis (and before that EASTLAND!!)...well, my dear friend. put on your white tie, because 'them's is some coattails'.

brd said...

Polly,
I think you should quote your coattails answer in a new post. It is hidden here.

I think in regard to your percentages, i.e. 19% of male voters, Hillary and all women still face an uphill battle in this world. So does Obama if we look at different sets of stats. That is why I think that the dem candidates have to be careful not to kill each other off with dirty politicking during the primary campaign. I do think they are trying.

BRD