Thursday, January 03, 2008

Iowa Caucus Results

OK, here are my predictions. I'm not in Iowa. i have no contacts in Iowa. I don't pretend this is any more than my hunch.

Edwards and Obama end up on top. maybe 2-3 points separating them. i give it to edwards due to the difficulty of the caucusing process and the fact that he has a lot of old pros working the rooms for him. Obama has more steam, but the process here is different than simply voting today at some point when you get free. it may hurt him. Hillary gets 3rd. the question is how bad. she isn't a paper tiger, but may be a balsa wood tiger.

Word on the street: Richardson is directing his people to cast 2nd choice votes for Obama. Kucinich is telling his people to give votes to Edwards.

Caucus goers that support candidates with less than 15% of the total in their particular sight have the option of leaving or casting their votes elsewhere, for another candidate. Richardson is directing his people to cast 2nd choice votes for Obama. Kucinich is telling his people to give votes to Edwards. Edwards has people that are experienced at doing this. Obama's 20 year old college supporter hasn't ever done this...but there's a lot of people like her.

1 comment:

teahouse said...

Well you were pretty accurate, Mr. Polly!