TIME.com: Inside The Debate Strategies

The debates are coming!

I am a bit nervous about these. nevermind that the 32page contract drawn up favors the things for which Bushco asked. Nevermind that the format is so watered down and sterile that it forbids interaction (ahem...if i were Kerry, i'd break one of those rules about not talking to the opponent just to throw him off and start up the GOP whine machine. that will be guaranteed to be talked about in the spin cycle after the debates. just do it well. bah...won't ever happen).

Everyone in the news is antsy about the debate, trying to get every possible take from everyone that ever had an experience or an idea about these two. I'm antsy too. I'm not that familiar with Kerry's debates in the past, but i do know this: the video about how he 'turned the tables' on a capital punishment attack doesn't do him any favors. it highlights him being (then at least) against capital punishment (not helping) and turning the issue into his time in Vietnam (the public is tired of that...well, not if done correctly).

Leading into this, bush has an edge. i'm not talking about polls. i'm not talking about concessions in the debate formats. i'm talking about the way bush answers questions. he has a short, feel good answer and no matter what you ask him, he's not going to get off of that. the press is notoriously bad at giving him a followup question when he gives vague platitudes. don't expect a moderator to do any different. moreover, Kerry is forbidden from asking direct questions to call him on it. that's not to say that he cannot do it. the problem is that kerry (rightfully) sees complex issues for what they are and he's not as good at distilling that down to a soundbite.

that certainly doesn't make bush a better leader, and we've seen MANY times where his one liners are invitations to disaster or at least show a profound lack of understanding when it comes to the issue at hand....and you know...this debate isn't being scored by a judge. its scored by the comfort of the people watching.

moreover, it will be scored by the people who DID NOT watch.

This is my biggest concern. the week AFTER the debates. the GOP are FAR better at having their surrogates out there to spin this thing into whatever direction they want. the only way to avoid this is for Kerry to go in for the kill. now he can do it with class, but he has to make the conservative media echo-chamber sound like their grasping at straws. he can do it, but i won't tell you he's my first pick to pull the job off.

Consider this: A study by the University of Pennsylvania's Annenberg Public Policy Center found non-viewers' opinions of Gore eroding as the coverage of his manner grew more negative. this was a DIRECT result of the successful post debate spin, not the reality. the GOP didn't forget about this. all to often the Democrats do forget these things.

James Carville needs to draft the talking points for after the debate and deliver them w/ a threat to the surrogates. Neither Mr. Mooch or I are anxious about this as we feel this shapes up everything leading to the events of the last week before the election.